The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its third estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025, revealing a 0.5% annualized growth in real GDP. This follows a 4.4% increase in the third quarter and a 0.7% advance estimate for the fourth quarter. The revision downward from the second estimate is primarily due to a reduction in investment, particularly in private inventory investment within wholesale trade.
Consumer spending and investment contributed positively to GDP growth, while government spending and exports had a negative impact. Imports, which are subtracted in GDP calculations, also decreased. The leading industries driving GDP growth were wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance.
From a regional perspective, real GDP increased in 35 states during the fourth quarter, with North Dakota experiencing the highest growth at 3.8%. Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting were the primary contributors to North Dakota's GDP growth. However, the District of Columbia saw a decrease of 8.3%.
Personal income increased in 47 states and the District of Columbia, with Hawaii leading the way at 41.5%. Earnings and personal current transfer receipts also increased in most states, with Massachusetts and North Dakota experiencing the largest decreases.
The Bureau's ongoing modernization efforts have improved the GDP news release, providing more interactive data tables and reducing the duplication of PDF and Excel formats. The next release is scheduled for April 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT, offering the advance estimate for the first quarter of 2026.
In summary, the third estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows a positive GDP growth, driven by consumer spending and investment, with regional variations. The Bureau's improvements in data presentation and accessibility enhance the understanding of economic trends and provide valuable insights for policymakers and researchers.
